09/01/2026
Nicer Mahi (if not as many as mid-August)
A Long Catch Estimate Rant
9/1/26
Light rail, calm sea, Chamber of Commerce sunrise; was a fine start to the day. While a few miles from Dave Hammond's Memorial Reef I saw the Tiki XIV on the near-horizon . He was there to sweeten Dave's Reef with block donated by York Building Products (& there's a tug soon to follow I hope!) We paused a moment to make our daily drop of 16 jumbo blocks in a unit & watch Capt Stormy deploy their first drop of 132 blocks (x4 for a total). We were both spot on; and, both drops may well have squished a few sea bass. (Well, I marked mad fish on Dave's and also on the new reef with just 232 blocks. I suspect sea bass hear those blocks falling as you'd hear a train. They'd sure better get out of the way!)
Got the skunk off the boat first drop with a bailer mahi. Pull a few, goose egg, pull a few more, goose egg, Don put a nice one in the box - biggest this season I expect - just how it went. Had to sort em out spot by spot. Tried hard to finish the day with a bang - left early, in late: but when the current slacked, the bite fizzled.
Still, a decent day of mahi fishing I think.
Plenty of room next two days too. Friday for fluke too.
Yesterday NOAA announced new catch estimates - updating MRIP. I worked with lead scientists and statisticians for about 2 years on the update. (Have always worked with em..)
Sadly, the result was like everything else in recreational catch estimates since the Party/Charter correction of 2003 - wrong.
And Now A Brief Synopsis Of 28 Years Of Work - that, on Facebook, amounts to a long rant..
Where Maryland Shore (& I do mean from Shore Only) had 178,000 lbs of sea bass in Sept/Oct 2016 in MRIP after two 'recalibrations' -- now under the "new & improved" estimates it's 182,000 pounds.
Sea Bass From Maryland's Shore.
Oh, they all weighed over a pound too.
Be a neat trick.
When the estimate came out I was watching close. We get closed or at least more tightly regulated when catch estimates show us catching too many cbass. I've tried to help fix it since 1998. While there was a victory of sorts in Party/Charter estimates in 2003, since then our estimates have grown incredibly worse.
Awful really.
After this 'Shore Only' estimate a bunch of us turned the internet upside down back then and found one angler who claimed to have caught a legal sea bass from Shore at the inlet pier.
Gosh.
Had Shore anglers actually caught the equal of 3+ years of all MD Party/Charter landings? ...I suspect I'd have had a time selling fares to go catch far fewer offshore.
Don't have to be a die hard angler to know that's a bunch of codswallop. MD shore hasn't caught a hundred pounds all together since the size limit went to 10 inches in 1998.
Yup.
MRIP was fixed alright.
Maybe "Fixed to make it look like recreational anglers are burning through and beyond quota while scientists use nonexistent catch to boost population assessments"? The bigger the population, the larger ours & commercial quotas get. You can bet commercial quota doesn't dissipate in a cloud of electrons though. Theirs is never ghost catch. If legal, those fish get landed.
I've only checked a couple estimates in the new system - a few of the exact ones I've used for years. Another new estimate was down an amazing 500K lbs. That might seem good - sound good ..until you get Paul Harvey's "Rest of the Story"..
In 2010/2011 I was frequently using a NJ Shore Tautog estimate from 2010 to illustrate how bad MRFSS (NOAA's original statistical estimating program) data was. It showed NJ's Shore anglers landing 73,000 tautog in March/April 2010. Experts in NJ doubted anyone had caught shore tautog - maybe 100 pounds in the end of the period. So mayyyyybeee 300lbs of tog/blackfish.
Then MRIP comes out in 2012 - three years late but, trust me, NOAA wasn't counting. We had permitted "accountability measures" - this where going over quota would be 'paid back' in the following year with an equal reduction in new quota. Now, being as this new super accurate estimating system, MRIP, based on saltwater licensing numbers was to be up and running by 2009, folks agreed to the accountability measures..
But, as noted, MRIP didn't come out in 09. Was 2012. NOAA bludgeoned us with accountability measures sans new data anyway.
And we were pummeled by MRFSS catch estimates. A six month 'emergency' sea bass closure very nearly cost me my boat.
Very, very nearly.
Oh, and when those "New & Improved" estimates did come out? MRIP had those poor fellows freezing their you-know-whats off along NJ's jetties and bridges in March/April as no longer catching an impossible 73,000 tautog.
Oh No - now it was 174,000 tautog.
Some repair..
Then came two MRIP "recalibrations" where our catch numbers shot to the moon.
Those merciless slayers of untold tautog along New Jersey's coast were now Confirmed (there is no backing off a catch estimate. Whatever the centerpoint? That's what those recreational anglers caught) ..NJ's late winter Shore anglers were Confirmed to have caught 341,441 tautog which was then calculated to over 800,000 pounds.
And the experts thought maybe, just maybe, 300 pounds.
So, shall I offer kudos to this new RAPID system of estimating recreational catch? After all, they did drop the NJ Shore Tautog estimate by 500K lbs.
At 300,000 lbs it's only Three Orders Of Magnitude Too High.
Yay?
Bad recreational catch data has bankrupted many in the ForHire fisheries - especially in NY where the data seems worst. One Private Boat sea bass estimate had NY's Boston Whalers and Grady Whites catching more cbass in Nov/Dec 2016 than All Commercial Trawl/Trap from Hatteras to Cape Cod caught All Year..
Seem likely?
MRIP wrote and said there were no errors in their calculations.
In 2018 recreational catch of Private Boat & Shore landings for flounder and sea bass were now suddenly said to be so large that scientific population assessments were thought too low. With these now much higher levels of Private Boat & Shore catch, there wouldn't have been enough flounder or cbass to support MRIP's estimates had there not been a lot higher fluke and sea bass populations than thought. Stock assessments now raised - Commercial summer flounder quota increased 49% & their sea bass quita increased 69%.. This while recreational fishers saw no loosening of regulation at all because we were already catching too many .according to MRIP.
Our allowable landings disappear as ghost catch on a computer screen while commercial landings factually hit the dock.
What could go wrong?
Making fun of estimates no one believed didn't 'prove' them wrong so I worked out "Percentage of the Catch" too.
Consider - All Party/Charter & All Commercial tautog catch for the entirety of 2010 (ALL Professional Catch!) equaled 627,302 lbs -- that's 180,210 lbs less than MRIP had NJ Shore anglers landing in March & April 2010 - so in two months (when they're not biting) NJ Shore showed as catching an enormous percentage of total tautog.
I spent months on it.
In 2013, for instance, All Party/Charter from Hatteras to Cape Cod landed just 4% of the total recreational black sea bass landings.
Hmmm..
Often times a single state's Private Boats would have more than 95% of their sea bass landings.
I interviewed many ForHire skippers up and down the coast. No one thought Party/Charter caught such a low percentage. In MD I'd question Private Boat catching even above 25% of ForHire's landings.
Did I mention Party/Charter has had to report sea bass/summer flounder (well, everything we catch I think) since 1997?
Some great data and it's spot on too - especially compared to MRIP.
Do you think Fishery Managers use that data.
Not as catch they don't.
They say they use it calculate 'effort' though.. If so, I cannot tell it.
What a mess.
You cannot push with a string. I was never able to conclusively "Prove" an estimate was too high. Might not have been a living soul who believed it; but, to NOAA's Regional Administrators? "Why Sure! It Could have happened!"
Whatever number was on screen? That's what we caught. .
Then the MAFMC put up a video camera in the Ocean City Inlet to count 'ocean effort' of Private Boats.
In July/Aug 2020 (wave 4) MRIP's total effort estimate for all ocean-only Private Boat effort in MD is 185,341 angler trips. Divide by 4 per boat and again by 60 days and you'll see 772 Private Boat trips a day leaving Ocean City MD's inlet. (Oyyyy.. Nonsense! Even the White Marlin Open would have just over 300 boats if they all went, and that's the biggest billfish tournament in the world!) So: MRIP has 772 boats a day..
Video boat count for the same period is 37,500 angler trips during the two month wave or 156 boats per day if using the same parameters of 4 anglers per boat and 60 days. That's 616 less boats & 2,464 fewer anglers per day.
Per Day!
That, all by itself, is plenty to skew catch estimates incredibly off track.
How about with the two day old "New & Improved" RAPID system?
That same high-summer period now shows 45,611 fewer angler trips at 139,730 total.
Bring it down with the same formula and you have 528 boats leaving OC inlet per day with 4 anglers each.but video recorded 156 boats per day. (And I think that's too high. We were not allowed to count them!)
You'd think such a statistically valid method of calculating recreational effort would be highly desirable.
Yeah, No.
Nope.
They won't use the data we send in every trip either.
Though jumping commercial quotas up 49 & 69% is mighty smelly; if "It's a Conspiracy" then there's an awful lot of folks that have been involved over the years.
I haven't any idea why NOAA is resistant to checking crucial data, but I could lose all my permits and even get locked up for falsely reporting catch.
I thought we had a chance this time.
Cheers,
Monty
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