07/16/2026
Everyone please stay safe and alert as our Hill Country areas are affected by all the rain 🌧️ ☔️ Turn around, Don’t Drown!
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We are very early in the game of today's flash flood event, but from my assessment of what is already falling and what is still to come, it's safe to assume that many Hill Country rivers will flood today. Of greatest concern will be the Llano River and the Pedernales River.
The Pedernales is already rising from 10"+ of rain this morning, waiting to see just how high it will go. That water goes DIRECTLY into Lake Travis, bypassing the rest of the dams and lakes above Lake Travis.
The LLANO River will flood to some degree and likely require floodgate operates on Lake LBJ and Lake Marble Falls (the "passthrough" lakes) before that water goes into Lake Travis.
First things first, if you live along these rivers or lakes, you have time to prepare for the flood that's coming. Please do so TODAY while we wait to see just how much water will move into those rivers. Plan for the worst, hope for the best.
Second, let's talk about Lake Travis. It is 85% full and about 10 feet below full elevation. I think it will fill up. Probably. If it does reach 100% capacity, floodgate operations will be needed on Mansfield Dam for the first time since 2019. That will then have some impacts on Lake Austin and Town Lake.
Suffice it to say that this is a multi-day event even after the rain ends sometime this afternoon/evening. More to come.