08/04/2026
Most disruptive technologies begin slowly and follow a classic S-curve. Early products cost more, offer fewer choices, require new infrastructure, and attract mostly enthusiasts. Then prices fall, performance improves, supporting systems expand, and ordinary consumers get comfortable. Adoption accelerates, eventually slows, and settles at a mature level the pattern behind personal computers, smartphones, digital cameras, and flat-screen TVs.
No technology follows another's timeline exactly, and EVs have their own headwinds: cars cost more than phones or TVs, vehicles stay on the road for over a decade, charging access still varies widely, and policy can accelerate or stall things quickly as recent U.S. policy changes have shown, with growth here clearly slowing in the near term. But the meaningful comparison isn't the pace, it's the trajectory, and EVs are tracking it: BloombergNEF, IEA, and Cox Automotive data all point toward more than half of new car sales globally being electric by 2040, even as the U.S. lags meaningfully behind that pace.
Slower growth is still growth. It affects when, not if. Battery costs keep falling, more models keep reaching the market, and charging networks keep expanding. In China, many EVs already cost no more than comparable gas vehicles in several segments, and other markets are moving the same direction.
We're already past the point where a reversal looks likely the transition is moving through the difficult middle stretch between early adoption and becoming commonplace. We'll dig into what a U.S. lag could mean for domestic automakers and workers in a future post.
