JHM Inc.

09/30/2013

USDA found lots of corn for todays Stocks report. Nothing bullish in the news ahead. The last time the stocks/use ratio was at these levels was 2005 and we traded at $2

09/17/2013

Heavy is the only word you can use to describe current market conditions. In between the dry weather, bullish yield forecasts from the USDA and bullish acreage numbers from the FSA, the markets simply cannot sustain a bullish trend. While the markets are in no way in free fall they are bumping into the lower end of support and in some cases expanding the low end of the range. Traders are becoming disinterested in being chopped around as the bulls are not winning the argument while the bears are still a little anxious if the full extent of the late season drought has been reported or seen in early yields. More range bound trade seems to be the outlook but unless yields begin to fall dramatically the highest prices of the harvest season are behind us. Sell rallies with some urgency as we head deeper into harvest.

Jody Lawrence

08/28/2013

Heat may benefit corn?

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08/27/2013

Decatur corn bid +125 CU3 this morning down from +175 CU3 yesterday. That us a huge basis move for overnight.

08/20/2013

Early estimates from the Pro Farmer Tour
The estimated rough yield for Ohio corn is 171.64 bu./acre. The Tour estimated a 110.50 bu./acre yield for 2012 and 144.12 bu./acre is the three-year average.

08/19/2013

CHICAGO-(Bloomberg)--Government forecasters may have to reverse three straight months of lower U.S. corn-crop estimates as warm weather and near-record planting has spurred Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG to predict a record crop.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture declared on Aug. 12 output this year will be 13.763 billion bushels, down 2.7 percent from what it expected in May, after rain delayed planting and low temperatures slowed growth. With most fields two months from harvest, Goldman said normal weather until then will yield 14.14 billion bushels, and Deutsche Bank forecast 14.25 billion, up 6.4 percent from June.

08/18/2013

The Pro Farmer group will have their Annual Midwest crop tour this week. The organizer of the event told the group to be prepared for anything. They have been within 2-4 bu of the final yield they the last 2 years. This is a real life tour across the Midwest of actual yield estimates.

06/28/2013

Using USDA June yield of 156.5, just above trend line yields would put harvest at near 14 Mil bu with a carryout of 1,949. A weather scare trimming to a 150 yield would lower the carryout 600 mil bu. A 160 yield could Raise the carryout 300 mil bu. With normal weather patterns the DEC futures could trade down to $4.20

06/28/2013

The report provided just enough flame to ignite the fireworks today. The USDA estimated 97 mil acres planted and the pre-report private estimates were around 95.3 mil ac planted. December settled off $0.27 cents to a new contract low of $5.11. SEP 13 has lost over $0.63 cents this week. Unless July weather takes a dismal turn for the worst the corn belt is on their way to a bumper crop. Cooler temps next week with ample moisture will continue to plague new crop prices. Old crop corn rallied to close up $0.14 cents at $6.82 after being down 13 cents after the report. This rally moved the JUL/SEP inversion at -$1.35. Private estimates say it will take a 124 bu crop to bring corn out of this slide and back above $7. Trend line yields are approximately 154 bu/ac. Very BEARISH picture for new crop corn without a MAJOR weather problem.

06/27/2013

Report tomorrow at 11. Planted acreage, end of month, end of the week, and First Notice day for July Futures all happen on the same day. Last year this report started the Bull Rally that saw futures rise $2 in two months. With favorable weather patterns forecasted into the Mid West through July and private reports estimating 95.3 million acres planted this report could provide the same fireworks but in a different direction. Demand destruction has taken its toll and national yields 25 bu. (124 bu/ac) below trend line yield will be required to get SEP futures back above $7. JUL is trading $0.98 cents above SEP and that inversion has to be dealt with. Interesting to see what transpires.....

06/20/2013

Pretty good article on the 2013 and 2014 grain crops.

AgWeb’s Hedge Position Monitor

06/09/2013

Great shot from the air