24/08/2026
🇺🇦 SPIKE BROKERS | Weekly Commodity & Logistics Market
21.08.26
Part I. Logistics
📊 EXPORT KEY
• Ukrainian exports enter the second half of August at one of the lowest rates in recent years. According to data from August 1-15, 641.9 thousand tons were exported through all modes of transport, while for the whole of July – 2.889 million tons.
• August total agricultural exports are expected to be at about 1.33 million tons, or 54% less than July. It may become the weakest August month for the entire period of the full-scale war.
• Expected August exports will be 68% lower than the average August exports of 2022-2025 – 4.19 million tons, as well as 64% lower than the previous August minimum of the full-scale war period – 3.71 million tons in 2025.
• The share of sea transport in total exports decreased from 86.5% in July to 51.4% in the first 15 days of August, while the share of railways increased from 11.2% to 38.5%.
• The higher share of railways does not mean the restoration of grain flows: according to Ukrzaliznytsia, grain exports by rail decreased by 68% m/m and 77% y/y. The decrease was primarily due to the lack of shipments in the sea direction and the inability to compensate for them with other alternatives.
• 250.0 thousand tons were shipped by rail through the crossings, which is 126% more compared to the corresponding period in July, while only 53.2 thousand tons, or 94.5% less, were shipped to the ports of Greater Odessa.
• The increase in the land direction compensated for only about 15% of the loss of sea port flows; even with the increase in exports via Izmail, the compensation does not exceed 19%.
🚚 ROAD TRANSPORTATION
• In the first 15 days of August, 28.7 thousand tons were exported by road transport, compared to 58.8 thousand tons for the whole of July.
• The share of road transport in total exports increased from approximately 2.0% to 4.5%. This is mainly the effect of a reduction in the total export flow, and not an acceleration of road shipments.
🚝 RAIL TRANSPORTATION
• As of August 19, 713.3 thousand tons of grain were transported by rail, which is 43% less than the corresponding period in July and 56% less year-on-year. The average daily load for the first 18 days was 34.7 thousand tons, 31% less than in July and 43% less than in August last year.
• The export component is decreasing even faster: 342.0 thousand tons of grain and milling products were transported abroad by rail, or 68% less m/m and 77% less y/y.
• Exports of vegetable oil amounted to 71.9 thousand tons, which is 19.4% more m/m and 55.9% more y/y; cake and meal – 104.0 thousand tons, +5.6% m/m, but -13.0% y/y.
• The main reduction in rail exports is now concentrated in the grain segment.
🚧 Towards the border
• The intensity of grain wagon transfers through western crossings in August is significantly higher than in July. In the first 18 days, the average daily rate reached 160.6 kg/day compared to 71.3 kg/day in July – a 2.3-fold increase. The highest intensity is in Romania – 49.1 kg/day, followed by Poland – 47.9, Slovakia – 34.8 and Hungary – 28.8 kg/day. Compared to July, the increase is +47.2, +34.3 and +17.9 kg/day for Romania, Poland and Slovakia, respectively, while the Hungarian direction reduced the transfer by 10.1 kg/day. As of August 19, there were 9,524 wagons in the border direction, 21% more than at the end of July. There were 979 grain wagons compared to 369, i.e. the accumulation increased by 165%. The largest grain queues are concentrated on Izov–Hrubeszów, Chop–Cierna nad Tisou, Jagodin–Dorohusk and Vadul-Siret–Dorneshty.
⚓️ Towards the port
• For the current period of August, only 53.2 thousand tons of grain were sent to port stations by rail, compared to 960.2 thousand tons for the comparable period in July – a drop of 907.0 thousand tons, or 94.5%.
• The Izmail direction is increasing its turnover, but is unable to compensate for the lack of the sea direction. It has accepted part of the redistributed cargo: export grain transportation through Izmail increased from 10.0 to 38.8 thousand tons. However, the additional 28.9 thousand tons of this channel are small compared to the loss of more than 0.9 million tons in the direction of Great Odessa.
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