06/09/2026
Stay safe everyone. ππΌ
DAY 2 OUTLOOK
VALID TUESDAY JUNE 09, 2026
Threat level: MEDIUM
Confidence: MEDIUM (based on model agreements)
Expected hazards: DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS // HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE // GRAPEFRUIT SIZE HAIL POSSIBLE (>10cm) // SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
Locations impacted: Western Manitoba
Timing: 5-10pm CDT
Expected watch(s): tornado watch likely
DISCUSSION
Similar parameters than we saw on Sunday are expected to be present again on Tuesday across Westman. The 500mb trough will continue to support significant severe weather albeit being weaker than Sunday. At the surface, a Montana low will bring a warm front into southern Manitoba through the day on Tue bringing an extremely unstable airmass characterized with MLCAPE 3,000J/kg, 0-1km SRH >200, 0-1km EHI values in the 4-6, giving sigtor values in the 3-5 range. Similarly to Sunday, a warm front will be oriented W-E and moving counterclockwise toward the Manitoba Escarpment. This area is expected to be the point of initiation for discrete supercells with NE motion that will have a risk of tornadoes (some possibly strong) and hail up to 4" (10cm) and has been outlined by a MOD risk. Again, similar to Sunday, a line of storms will develop as the LLJ kicks in and as the system occludes near 8pm and will rapidly move east toward Winnipeg after dark bringing a threat of damaging straight line winds and heavy rain. This area has been outlined by a SLGT and MRGL risk. Since this is a conditional MOD risk dependent on discrete supercells ahead of the line, risk may be downgraded or upgraded on Day 1 once confidence increases. It's worth noting that the U.S. NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center has introduced an ENH risk with a 10% tornado risk with strong tornado possibility in their outlook, which includes SW MB.