01/18/2024
Let’s address the elephant in the room: wintry precipitation is expected today. It will be nowhere near to the scale of what we experienced Sunday night into Monday, but due to significant lingering impacts from that system, the little bit of freezing rain and snow we receive with this system will only make existing problem spots worse and potentially recreate some issues (at least for this afternoon and tonight) in areas that have seen improvement.
So what’s up with this forecast? When will it start? Will it be safe to get from ‘x’ location to ‘y’ location at ‘z’ time? These are all questions I’m getting, and y’all, it’s complicated. The setup with this system is completely different and much more complex than what moved through earlier this week thanks to a ‘warm nose’ aloft that will be creeping into our region as we head into the early afternoon hours, which I’m sure raises the question of… “what’s a warm nose?”
This system will pull in ‘warmer’ air (using the term ‘warmer’ loosely here, as it’s still cold, just not *as* cold) out of the southwest, resulting in a ‘warm nose’ — a pocket of temperatures just above freezing a few thousand feet above our heads — creeping in as the day progresses.
Precipitation may begin around lunchtime or early this afternoon as light snowfall, transitioning to freezing rain during the afternoon hours as the warm nose moves overhead. This may result in *light* ice accumulations — not enough to worry about widespread power outages…but enough that it may create a light glaze of ice on all surfaces, including roadways. This is part of the reason why the Winter Weather Advisory was issued (EDIT: The Winter Weather Advisory has been expected to include all 14 of our viewing area counties)
It’s very difficult for me to answer questions about travel. I would try to avoid heading out unless it’s absolutely necessary this afternoon simply due to the threat of light icing. However, I don’t know what road conditions are like in your area from our previous event. Most back roads and secondary streets are still mostly snow covered. We’re just adding a thin layer of ice on top of it, plus subjecting roadways that have already been cleared to the same, thin-icy issues.
As for timing, again…it’s tough to say. We know precipitation will begin around lunchtime or early this afternoon, not shutting off completely until Friday morning. It will be light, and the rainfall-equivalent is only around a tenth of an inch to a quarter of an inch, which is not much at all — and part of this will be in the form of snow, either at the beginning of this system or the tail-end as it’s moving away early Friday morning. The warm nose aloft is a factor we cannot see with our own eyes or track with tools like radar. Minus the twice-a-day weather balloons releases by NWS Nashville, we only know what’s happening at the surface and can take our ‘best guess’ as to what will happen this afternoon based on forecast models and certain factors the models aren’t taking into account, like existing snowpack and its influence on temperatures at the surface. It was difficult enough trying to forecast five inches of snow vs eight inches the other day. I would argue today’s forecast is even more complicated than that.
�By around midnight, precipitation should be changing over to light snow showers as temperature profiles fall to or below freezing all the way from the surface up through the atmosphere. Accumulations of *up to* one inch are anticipated through the early morning hours of Friday before all is said and done.
Speaking of the overnight hours, an arctic cold front will move through the region, sending temperatures tumbling back down into the teens by lunchtime tomorrow. Our high temperature for the day will likely occur around midnight with temperatures becoming colder as the day wears on. Single digit lows are forecast Friday night/Saturday morning. Highs on Saturday will be in the teens with lows very likely falling to near zero or just below in some areas Saturday night/Sunday morning.
With temperatures this cold, whatever remaining snowpack we have (probably a lot), including treacherous spots on area roadways, will likely persist.
We’ll FINALLY make a push toward the freezing mark on Sunday with highs forecast to reach the lower to middle 30s. With ample sunshine in place, our melting process should be able to truly commence, although with overnight lows dipping back down into the teens Sunday night into Monday morning, it wouldn’t be surprising at all if several stubborn treacherous spots STILL remain on area roadways.
Oh, but this snow will not last forever. Next week will see to that. 40s are expected Monday. 50s on Tuesday. 60s(!) will enter the forecast by Wednesday or Thursday. We’ll also have daily rain chances entering the mix. We’ll feel more like March by the middle of next week instead of the deep freeze we’ve been stuck in, and I’m all about it. I love snow, but only in short-lived doses. This one is overstaying its welcome!